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By Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD).
In 2025, the Mexican peso has shown significant appreciation against the U.S. dollar, strengthening its reputation as the “super peso.” This trend has surprised financial and economic analysts, especially after a volatile 2024 that generated uncertainty in the markets.
The peso rose from 20.88 per dollar in December 2024 to 18.87 in June 2025. The accumulated gain so far in 2025 is approximately 9.6%. The Bank of Mexico adopted a more flexible stance by reducing its benchmark interest rate, stimulating investment and domestic consumption. Nevertheless, the rate remains attractive to foreign investors, sustaining capital inflows into Mexico in 2025.
Contrary to pessimistic forecasts, the new administration led by Claudia Sheinbaum has succeeded in transmitting economic confidence to the markets. Trade tensions and tariff policies have weakened the U.S. dollar, benefiting the peso in 2025. Meanwhile, the preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China reduced risk aversion and strengthened emerging market currencies.
Mexico’s 10-year bond yield has fallen, signaling a lower perception of risk among international investors. The peso’s performance in 2025 has been remarkable not only for its appreciation against the dollar but also for its resilience in an uncertain global environment.
The “super peso” is the result of a combination of internal factors—such as monetary policy and institutional stability—and external factors, including the dollar’s weakness and geopolitical adjustments.
The agreement reached between Mexico and the United States on July 31, 2025, represents a strategic truce amid aggressive U.S. trade policy. Mexico avoided new tariffs, protected the USMCA, and maintained open dialogue, reinforcing its role as a reliable partner in 2025. However, the 90-day deadline places significant pressure on both countries to reach a definitive agreement that ensures medium- and long-term economic and trade stability.
Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista is a Research Professor of International Economics at El Colef. He is a distinguished member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers of the National Council of Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (Conahcyt), and now part of the new Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology, and Innovation (Secihti).