In 2026, Cali Baja Emerges as a Highly Competitive Binational Megaregion

By Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD)

In 2026, the Cali Baja region consolidates itself as a binational megaregion valued at over $250 billion, where San Diego’s knowledge-based economy is deeply integrated with Baja California’s advanced manufacturing sector, forming one of North America’s most competitive productive corridors.

Its economic structure—grounded in cross-border value chains, specialized manufacturing, and a robust innovation ecosystem—drives growth, investment, and regional resilience.

The Cali Baja region encompasses San Diego and Imperial County in California, along with the state of Baja California in Mexico, forming a 150-mile economic corridor characterized by a unique level of productive integration. In 2026, this area is described as an “economic seam” where two complementary models converge: the U.S. knowledge economy and advanced Mexican manufacturing.

San Diego is one of the world’s most important biotechnology clusters. Its demand for specialized manufacturing, precision assembly, and regulatory services is supported by Baja California, creating a binational biomedical innovation ecosystem.

The military presence and defense companies in San Diego are linked with the aerospace manufacturing capabilities of Tijuana and Mexicali, forming a binational aerospace corridor with strengths in design, prototyping, and production.

The Otay II project is shaping up to be a key element for 2026 and 2027. The opening of this new port of entry, now projected for that period, promises to significantly reduce wait times, divert a portion of commercial and private vehicle traffic, and modernize processes through advanced technology. However, its impact will depend on effective binational coordination, adequate staffing on both sides of the border, and integration with existing transportation infrastructure.

By 2026, Cali Baja stands out as a highly competitive binational megaregion, driven by the deep integration of U.S. innovation and Mexican manufacturing. Its strength lies in cross-border value chains, binational talent, and a complementary economic structure. To sustain its growth, the region must invest in infrastructure, sustainability, labor mobility, and effective binational governance.

The Cali-Baja region requires a long-term binational vision that recognizes the border not as a dividing line, but as a shared economic system. Only then can it sustain its growth and fully realize its potential from 2026 to 2030.

Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista is a Research Professor of International Economics at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (El Colef) and a distinguished member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers. He has also served as a professor at Universidad Iberoamericana and CISE, as well as a fellow and guest scholar at the University of California, San Diego, and a visiting professor at the University of California, Irvine.