Related Articles
By: Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD)
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), known as T-MEC in Mexico, has been a key trade pact for North America since its implementation in 2020. However, recent discussions have emerged around potential modifications, with political figures such as Donald Trump, Mark Carney, and Claudia Sheinbaum pointing to the need for adjustments in 2026. This situation raises questions about the future of the agreement and its impact on the economies of the three countries.
The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had been in effect since 1994. The updated version introduced significant changes in areas such as the automotive industry, labor rights, digital trade, and rules of origin. One of the core goals of the USMCA was to strengthen regional competitiveness and ensure fairer trade among the three North American nations.
The modifications established in the USMCA have been critical for strategic sectors such as manufacturing, agricultural trade, and foreign investment. Nevertheless, the agreement is subject to periodic reviews, with an evaluation scheduled for 2026 that could set new terms for North American trade.
In the current context, some leaders have voiced their perspectives on the USMCA and its future. On one hand, Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of the agreement benefiting the United States, suggesting that changes could be implemented if it is not deemed optimal for his country. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, has expressed interest in renegotiation, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that there are no signs the agreement will be terminated, although its review is ongoing.
These positions reflect an environment of uncertainty, in which each country seeks to ensure the treaty remains beneficial to its economy. Any adjustment to the USMCA could involve changes to tariffs, labor regulations, and investment rules, which would affect key sectors across the three nations.
Each country has experienced different outcomes since the USMCA’s implementation. In the United States, the agreement has strengthened industries such as automotive and technology, increasing domestic production thanks to stricter rules on the origin of goods.
In Mexico, the USMCA has been a driving force for manufacturing growth, allowing for greater exports and attracting foreign investment, particularly in the automotive and auto parts industries. In Canada, the treaty has ensured access to the U.S. market for agricultural and energy products, maintaining a stable flow of trade.
Current economic challenges—such as inflation and the restructuring of supply chains—could lead to further revisions of the treaty. Globalization and the transition toward more sustainable economies also play a key role in the potential evolution of the USMCA. Therefore, any modifications must consider a balance between competitiveness, labor protections, and economic development.
The debate over a new USMCA underscores the ongoing need for adaptability in trade agreements, in response to the region’s economic and political challenges. While the treaty has been a fundamental tool for growth and economic stability in North America, a review with possible adjustments is likely in 2026. The key will be finding a balance that ensures mutual benefit for all three economies, without compromising the progress made in trade, investment, and international cooperation.
Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista
Research Professor in International Economics at El Colef
Distinguished member of Mexico’s National System of Researchers (Conahcyt) and currently with the newly formed Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology, and Innovation (Secihti)