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The state of the economy will affect the 2024 elections in Mexico and the United States

By: Dr. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD.).

What is happening now in the economy will have a significant impact on the presidential elections in Mexico and the United States in 2024. In addition to international issues such as wars, migration, and insecurity, the economy is what matters to voters, to the extent that long-term electoral models are based on economic data to produce precise predictions without even considering the identities, personalities, popularity, or policies of the candidates, or the strategies or tricks of their campaigns.

Elections are crucial moments in the political and economic life of a country. During these periods, citizens have the opportunity to choose their leaders and make decisions that can have a significant impact on all aspects of the economy and society. A democratic electoral result and a peaceful transition of power provide political and even economic stability, which is fundamental to generating confidence in financial and economic markets.

When investors and entrepreneurs have certainty about the rule of law and the political future of a country, they feel more secure to invest and expand their businesses, which drives economic growth, as well as development. Elections also define the economic policies that will be implemented during the tenure of the new leaders. Each political party has different approaches and priorities, so the election result can mean changes in regulations, taxes, and trade policies, which in turn can impact the economy in the following administration.

Voters tend to favor candidates and parties that promise economic and social policies that drive job creation and income growth. When the economy is booming and job opportunities are better, citizens tend to feel more satisfied and are more likely to vote for incumbents or those who promise to maintain and improve the economic situation and economic growth.

Elections and the economy are interconnected in many ways and influence each other. It is crucial to have political leaders and solid economic policies that promote stability, democracy, and economic growth in North America and around the world.

In the United States, Republican presidential pre-candidate Donald Trump has garnered 48 percent support in the latest poll for the November 2024 presidential elections, seven points ahead of his likely rival, current President Joe Biden. In Mexico, according to various surveys, presidential aspirants Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party and Xóchitl Gálvez of the opposition coalition Frente Amplio are the favorites among the public to become presidents in the 2024 presidential election.

Dr. Alejandro Díaz Bautista, Economist and Research Professor in International Economics at El Colef. Visiting Fellow UCSD’s Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies (USMEX) at the School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS).

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