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The landscape for small businesses across the U.S. is growing increasingly uncertain as the new administration’s trade policies take effect, with tariffs becoming a primary source of concern. According to a new report from Alignable, the largest online networking platform for small businesses, 41% of small business owners now anticipate revenue losses due to tariffs—an alarming 11-percentage-point increase from just a month ago.
A Growing Crisis for Small Businesses
The report, based on responses from 5,288 small business owners between February 7 and February 28, 2025, underscores the deepening anxiety within the small business community. Among those surveyed, 18% expect significant financial declines as a direct result of new and anticipated tariffs. Conversely, only 19% foresee any potential revenue boost, and fewer than half of them (9%) predict substantial growth.
The growing pessimism reflects a stark contrast to the optimism many small businesses expressed just months ago. “Small business owners generate 44% of the U.S. GDP, making them a vital pillar of our economy,” said Eric Groves, Alignable’s CEO and Co-Founder. “But as concerns over new tariffs intensify, their confidence is eroding quickly. Instead of focusing on growth, they’re just trying to stay afloat—delaying investments, freezing hiring, and reconsidering expansion plans.”
Regional and Industry-Specific Impact
Certain states are feeling the pressure more than others. The highest levels of concern are reported in:
- Georgia (51%)
- Minnesota (49%)
- Colorado (48%)
- Illinois (47%)
- California, Massachusetts, and Washington State (46%)
- New York (45%)
Conversely, states with lower levels of concern include:
- Texas (37%)
- Virginia (36%)
- Arizona and New Jersey (35%)
- Michigan (32%)
- Wisconsin (26%)
Industries are also experiencing uneven impacts. While sectors like insurance and roofing remain largely unaffected, manufacturers, retailers, and transportation businesses are facing a much tougher road ahead. The most significant shifts in concern include:
- Manufacturing: 54% now fear financial trouble, a dramatic increase from 26% last month.
- Retail: 54% of retailers expect revenue declines, up from 34% in February.
- Architecture/Interior Design: 63% anticipate losses, a 15-point jump.
- Science/Technology: 51% now express concerns, up 12 points.
- Restaurants: 45% foresee negative impacts, a 12-point increase.
Small Business Owners Speak Out
Beyond the numbers, small business owners themselves are voicing strong, mixed opinions about the tariffs. Some see potential benefits:
- “I support them because they force people to buy more U.S. products, like mine!”
- “Tariffs should encourage local commerce, which is what we want.”
Others, however, warn of devastating consequences:
- “I think they will be disastrous for our overall economy.”
- “I’m already feeling the effects of higher prices—my business is suffering.”
- “If Canada places a 25% tariff on imported goods like my gazebos and pergolas, I might go out of business.”
Policy Uncertainty Threatens Small Business Growth
The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to stalled business growth and hiring freezes. Many small business owners who were planning expansions are now adopting a wait-and-see approach.
“If policymakers don’t prioritize small businesses when shaping these decisions, there could be a ripple effect far beyond Main Street, destabilizing the entire U.S. economy,” warned Groves.
While some businesses may adapt and even find opportunities in shifting trade policies, many more are bracing for a tough road ahead. As tariffs reshape the economy, the voices of small business owners must be considered in future policy decisions to avoid widespread disruption.
For additional insights and more detailed data, visit the Alignable Research Center at www.alignable.com.
