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-Editorial
In a global environment defined by shifting alliances and high-stakes diplomacy, Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is charting a distinct course—one marked by strategic calm and quiet engagement with President Donald Trump. Unlike Trump’s typical use of “coercive diplomacy” with foreign leaders, Sheinbaum’s measured approach has helped stabilize U.S.-Mexico relations and even earned her rare praise from the polarizing American leader.
Despite their ideological differences, Sheinbaum and Trump have found common ground through a pragmatic understanding of mutual interests, particularly trade and border security. Trump, known for strong-arm tactics and confrontational rhetoric, has referred to Sheinbaum as a “marvelous woman,” acknowledging her diplomatic finesse.
This evolving relationship has become the focus of renewed analysis among political scholars and policy experts. During a recent panel discussion hosted by Ethnic Medica Services, David Ayón, Senior Fellow at Loyola Marymount University’s Leavy Center, highlighted how Mexico’s approach to U.S. relations has evolved over the past decade.
According to Ayón, the roots of this diplomatic posture trace back to former president Enrique Peña Nieto’s decision to invite Trump to Mexico during his 2016 campaign. “It was a strategy of appeasement,” Ayón said, noting that the visit gave Trump a statesman-like appearance on the world stage. This strategy, Ayón argued, was later amplified by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who made a symbolic state visit to Washington in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sheinbaum, Ayón added, continues in this vein, maintaining open lines with Trump and prioritizing continuity. “Three consecutive Mexican administrations have invested in maintaining stability in the relationship,” he said. “Mexico has offered Trump something valuable: the perception of normalcy.”
For Mexico, that normalcy comes with economic rewards. Avoiding confrontation with Washington has helped shield Mexican exports from harsh tariffs and encouraged foreign investment—especially during a period when global supply chains are being restructured in favor of nearshoring.
“Mexico is expanding trade capacity while the U.S. struggles to enforce tariffs,” Ayón explained, pointing to infrastructure projects like the expansion of the Pacific port in Manzanillo as evidence of Mexico’s long-term economic planning.
Stanford University’s Alberto Díaz-Cayeros offered a broader lens, framing Trump’s tariffs as part of a geopolitical strategy rather than mere economic retaliation. He likened Trump’s tactics to those of interwar Europe when dominant powers used trade dependencies to expand their spheres of influence.
“Trump’s tariffs fit into a redefinition of U.S. global positioning,” Díaz-Cayeros said. “Mexico may benefit by being inside that preferential circle.”
He also challenged the notion that Sheinbaum was simply a political successor to López Obrador. “Sheinbaum is more global and pragmatic,” Díaz-Cayeros said. “She trained at Berkeley, contributed to a Nobel Prize-winning effort, and brings scientific rigor to governance.”
However, Díaz-Cayeros warned that Sheinbaum’s biggest challenge may come from her party. With a supermajority in Congress, Morena’s overwhelming power could lead to political overreach. “Supermajorities reduce accountability,” he said. “That could become her Achilles’ heel.”
Business leaders have echoed optimism about Mexico’s trajectory. Larry Rubin, President of the American Society of Mexico, emphasized the resilience of U.S.-Mexico trade ties, especially under the USMCA. “The tariffs have been more symbolic than impactful,” Rubin said. “Mexico remains indispensable to U.S. industry, especially with a young labor force that complements America’s aging population.”
Rubin also highlighted the importance of upcoming reviews of the USMCA, urging Mexico to continue strengthening its judicial system and enforcing intellectual property laws. He noted that the two nations’ economic interdependence is now too deep to unwind.
Meanwhile, political analyst Luis Alvarado framed the Trump-Sheinbaum relationship as a reflection of 21st-century media-savvy governance. “Trump is the media president—he understands performance,” Alvarado said. “Sheinbaum and her team have been brilliant at staying calm and strategic, using media as a diplomatic tool.”
He argued that both leaders, despite their contrasting politics, are united by a shared interest in economic reform and public image management. “Behind closed doors, Trump listens to Wall Street. And Wall Street is talking to Claudia Sheinbaum,” he said.