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By: Dr. Alejandro Diaz Bautista, Economist and Researcher (PhD).
Donald J. Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election marks a historic comeback for the former president, who left office in 2021 after being unable to overturn the 2020 election results. “We overcame obstacles that nobody thought we could overcome,” Trump said on election night after a bitter and tough campaign. He committed to fighting for every family and their future. “This will truly be America’s golden age,” Trump promised.
U.S. elections have a significant impact on the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States.
The outcome of U.S. elections can influence trade policies and agreements, such as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Changes in leadership may lead to renegotiations or shifts in trade priorities.
The Mexican peso and general economic stability can be affected by the uncertainty and results of U.S. elections. Different parties, for example, may have differing stances on tariffs and trade restrictions, which can impact Mexico’s economy.
U.S. elections often bring changes to immigration policies, which directly affect Mexico. Stricter immigration policies can influence migrant flows and the resources needed to manage border regions.
The relationship between the leaders of both countries can shape diplomatic and political interactions. A cooperative relationship may influence bilateral initiatives and collaborations.
The Mexican peso has been sensitive to political events in the United States, especially during election periods. When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the peso experienced significant volatility due to his protectionist rhetoric and threats to impose tariffs on Mexican imports.
Currently, the peso is once again under pressure at the end of 2024. The possibility of Trump imposing new tariffs on Mexican products has caused a depreciation of the peso. This uncertainty impacts Mexico’s economy, which relies heavily on trade with the United States.
The peso’s reaction to U.S. elections highlights the close economic ties between the two countries and the impact of political decisions on financial markets. The potential for tariffs and changes in trade policies can create significant economic challenges for Mexico.
About Dr. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Professor and Researcher in International Economics at COLEF. A distinguished member of the National System of Researchers of the National Council of Humanities, Sciences, and Technologies (Conahcyt) and now at the new Secretariat of Science, Humanities, Technology, and Innovation (Secihti).
